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The All New 17/18 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Perty wrote:
Normally the forecast for snow later next week and over the weekend of 20th Jan, with freezing level at low altitude, would fill me with joy as I am planning to be in the mountains - at 1400m in St Martin de Belleville (so Tarentaise) until 21st Jan. However, I HAVE to be home in the UK by 21st Jan, and currently have a flight booked that day. Am concerned that the predicted weather and snowfall, especially the potential quantity, might cause chaos/close the road down the mountain, as well as flight disruptions at GVA. An even in the days before I am due to leave, the potential to ski may be scuppered again by high winds and avalanche risk.

Am I being a big wuss in bringing forward my return date? I know itís a bit too soon to be certain, but things are definitely looking stormy until Friday as far as I can see.


Mountains. Snow. In January.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
I'm in the same position as you - in Meribel till the 21st. (i) It's too far away to worry about at this stage...(ii) if you're in St.Martin, you are in a better position if the roads are tricky than if further up the valley in Les Menuires or VT; (iii) if you have a Sunday changeover, the traffic will be much less than on Saturday. So yes, it might be bad, but you'll be unlucky if it as bad as some of the horror stories from earlier in the season


Last edited by Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person on Fri 12-01-18 21:11; edited 1 time in total
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Nelbert75 wrote:
Perty wrote:
Normally the forecast for snow later next week and over the weekend of 20th Jan, with freezing level at low altitude, would fill me with joy as I am planning to be in the mountains - at 1400m in St Martin de Belleville (so Tarentaise) until 21st Jan. However, I HAVE to be home in the UK by 21st Jan, and currently have a flight booked that day. Am concerned that the predicted weather and snowfall, especially the potential quantity, might cause chaos/close the road down the mountain, as well as flight disruptions at GVA. An even in the days before I am due to leave, the potential to ski may be scuppered again by high winds and avalanche risk.

Am I being a big wuss in bringing forward my return date? I know itís a bit too soon to be certain, but things are definitely looking stormy until Friday as far as I can see.


Mountains. Snow. In January.


I'm sat at my desk at home at 8PM on a Friday night trying to finish a business plan paper that should have been sent to my boss in Hamburg at 4 ... I'll swap with you.
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@robboj, hi nice link to the 10 day graph, any idea what altitude itís based on? Cheers
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Some very nice weather in many parts of the Alps today.



But that all changes on Tuesday in the northern Alps. Heavy snowfall and strong winds and much lower temperatures. That said at times the snowline will rise as the storm passes through (around 1500m in the west 900m in the east) though will also reach much lower into the valleys.

The strength of the winds in exposed areas is likely to lead to lift closures midweek. Heavy snowfall and wind will push up the avalanche risk. Anticipate level 4 in places and I would not be surprised to see level 5 in higher resorts if the forecast plays out.

By next weekend far colder temperatures with the jet stream pouring down from the north.

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Eek we are skiing in Stubai valley next weekend. Looking like a distinct possibility of whiteout. Hope that storm blows through and is gone by Friday...
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@robertsnerys, Stubai isnít in the main firing line as itís a little further south than say Lech.
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robertsnerys wrote:
Eek we are skiing in Stubai valley next weekend. Looking like a distinct possibility of whiteout. Hope that storm blows through and is gone by Friday...


Just go to Schlick wink
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Another onslaught for the north west alps. I imagine they would prefer a longer break in the weather to concentrate on getting everything open and sorting themselves out. Puzzled
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@clarky999 as luck would have it is Fulpmes we are staying in.
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Any ideas how Ischgl will fare this week? What area is Ischgl in, geographicly?


Last edited by snowHeads are a friendly bunch. on Sat 13-01-18 16:36; edited 1 time in total
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@brianr, As I understand it's the t2m temperature which is basically the air you breathe temperature for resort level.
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staffsan wrote:
Any ideas how Ischgl will fare this week? What area is Ischgl in, geographicly?


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&lid=OP&var=93&bw=&geoid=3158

Paznaun Valley, Tyrol
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
This is how ARPEGE sees it out to Thursday morning. Arriving in the Pyrenees tomorrow and Alps on Tuesday.



Thereís an arc of heavy snow reaching out to the Arlberg from Savoie.

Parts of Savoie and Haute Savoie look like they could receive over a meter between the start of the snow on Tuesday and Thursday morning. That will be likely to cause a few problems. Expect lift closures.

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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:


That big shift in the weather for the northern side of the Alps now showing up clearly in the ensembles.

The Arlberg



Chamonix



Cairngorm



Sestriere



Eastern Pyrenees

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 Poster: A snowHead
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Just arrived in Sainte Foy, currently calm, crisp and relatively mild. I suspect we will be leaving to somewhat different conditions.

Eurostar back on Saturday but, hey, we donít need to be back until Tuesday and plenty of accommodation free next week, so bring it on!
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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A bit of an update on La NiŮa.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/january-2018-la-niŮa-update-summiting-peak
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6:50 am Eurotunnel on Friday (19th) driving down to Val d'Isere. Getting seriously worried we won't get up the valley!
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@dunc999, the worst weather is currently forecast for midweek.
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dunc999, relax. The "roadies" are very good at clearing the road. The problem for previous days of carnage - usually Saturdays - is the large number of cars driven by idiots. Snow-ploughs can get through the snow and clear it, but they can't get through multiple cars strewn across the road.
I'm also driving in Friday. It should be quiet. It helps i have winter tyres and 4-wheel drive. I know he road. And i'll be arriving late morning, so in the light. But i have made it up to La Plagne in previous years in a little Twingo with snow tyres, in the dark, with a couple of idiots going just too slow (keep going is the secret: don't stop), and snow pouring down.
Don't get with the Negative Waves - have a little faith - just do it! snowHead
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Quote:

have a little faith - just do it!

and practice getting snow chains on in a jiffy!
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@Jonpim, A Twingo?.....with snow tyres?!?......surely one of the most effective winter driving tools in the Alps....hardly going to inspire confidence if you don't have one Very Happy .
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
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Ha ha cheers guys. I've practiced with the snow chains, on in a a minute or so now on the comfort of the drive with a cuppa at hand Shocked

I didn't add it's a rwd BMW Confused

But can't wait, popping my Val cherry and SO excited!
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Thanks for all the great weather info on here - I've learnt a lot and am now keen to put that learning to use with a snap trip to the Alps this w/e 20-21 Jan to make the most of the fresh snow and low temps.

Have a question though: am thinking of going to Serre Chevalier as have not been there before and there is a sleeper train from Paris. But according to Bergfex there is 8cm fresh forecast at the top there for Thurs/Fri, compared with 75cm for Les Arcs. Is this realistic - in which case I would prefer to be further north for more fresh snow - or is this type of system likely to favour Serre more than this forecast suggests? Or is it too early to tell? I note that GFS-based forecasts don't show such a big discrepancy. Thanks for any advice!
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@Taoskier, as Weathercam will tell you Serre Chevalier is a Barry Manilow-esque Bermuda Triangle which almost never behaves as expected. ItĎs on the edge of being on the northern and southern side of the Alps. But at present the heavier snowfall looks like being further to the north than Serre Chevalier.
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Thanks @nozawaonsen, I like the sound of a Bermuda Triangle, especially if I can't get back for work. I am minded to give it a go (at least I won't get stuck on the road on the way in) but will keep an eye on the next few model runs. Can't wait to see how it all pans out Very Happy
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06z GFS has swung away from cold weather next weekend though 00z ECM still backed it. I suspect the GFS op will be an outlier but letís see.
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This is ARPEGE out till Friday morning.



Localized snowfall amounts over 1m in parts of northern Alps by then along with heavy winds. As mentioned above expect the snowline to briefly rise as the storms come in on Tuesday and Thursday.

Temperatures drop into the weekend and GFS12z then races another storm through on Sunday with milder temperatures. Not clear how much support that has yet.

The following week is currently forcaset to see an increase in influence by high pressure become calmer and milder across the Alps though that is of course a long way off!
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 You know it makes sense.
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@nozawaonsen, seems a big difference between GEM and GFS for w/b 20th when I head to Tignes. I know it's a long way off, but any views on model reliability between the 2?
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@brianr, not much of a difference, both have high pressure and milder temperatures pushing across.

GEM



GFS



ECM keeps it cooler till Wednesday.

In terms of reliability Iíd generally put ECM a little above GFS and GFS a little above GEM. But that doesnít really help as what you are looking for is convergence. Where the different models agree you can increase confidence and where they disagree you can reduce confidence.
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 Poster: A snowHead
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The other point about reliability is you are talking about relatively small differences. And on any given run one model could be throwing out an outlier. At that sort of range (ie over seven days) you will be very lucky to pick up more than a broad trend (see page one, post one of this thread).
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@nozawaonsen, if I may, whatís your best guess for Verbier for the week of 22nd? About to pull the trigger on a Powder Extreme 5 day camp. I think the Cham squiggle points towards snow finishing on the Monday Followed by a period of Bluebird which would be perfect...
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I really hope that changes, I'm only getting 1 week in this year and I would like cold weather to keep the snow in good nick for the w/c 27th. C'est la vie, we will see, it'll be fun anyway.
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@BobinCH, right now it looks like it is heading towards mild, sunny weather that week after a few days of stormy colder weather.

So that's great...

If it stays like that...

Which it may or may not...

Which begs he question of whether or not you should always double down on 11?


http://youtube.com/v/dxlbeqeGkQ8?list=PL5AFEBB5948BAD958
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@nozawaonsen, double down.... I donít think so. Mineís a Glenmorangie 😉
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SLF outlook for Switzerland for Tuesday and Wednesday.

"Outlook through Wednesday, 17.01.2018

Skies will be heavily overcast. Above approximately 1000 m, persistent snowfall is anticipated. On the northern flank of the Alps, in the Valais, in northern Grisons, in Samnaun, as well as in the western Jura region, 50 to 80 cm of fresh snow is anticipated by Wednesday evening over widespread areas, accompanied by strong to storm-strength westerly winds; in the western part of Lower Valais, as much as 100 cm of fresh snow is expected. Only in the furthermost southern regions is next to no precipitation anticipated.

The avalanche danger is expected to increase significantly over widespread areas. On Wednesday in western regions, danger level 4 (high) could be reached."
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WRF out till Wednesday evening.

One or two very localised areas pushing up towards 2m snow by then.

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OK, maybe someone can take a shot at explaining this - the Schladming webcams are showing that it's snowing (started during the night). The fact that it wasn't forcasted I understand. But the GFS is still showing no snow on the last run for today and, even more strangely, the radar sites show no clouds over the area????
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@sugardaddy, GFS is not much use at that short range (see post one page one).

http://www.lawine.salzburg.at/lageberichte/lb_2018-01-15.html?lang=en_UK

ďAlpine Weather Forecast (ZAMG Salzburg)

Today, a bit of light snowfall here and there. Summits will stay hidden in fog until midday, only in Upper Pinzgau will the sun penetrate it. As of midday, sunshine everywhere. Westerly winds will be strong (40 km/hr), in exposed zones even stronger (70 km/hr). This afternoon, southerly foehn will arise. At 2000 m: -5 degrees; at 3000 m: -11 degrees. Ē
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Weather warning for snow in Scotland and Northern Ireland.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/mobile/warnings/uk

ďChief Forecaster's assessment

Snow showers will be heaviest and most frequent across western Scotland, where high ground is likely to see 10-20 cm building up above 200-300 metres. There may also be more than 15 cm over the hills of Northern Ireland, especially in the north. At low levels throughout the warning area, 2-8 cm will be more typical, with some places seeing very little. Showers will be accompanied by hail and lightning at times, particularly across western Scotland. Here, in particular, there is potential for disruption to power supplies from lightning strikes. Strong winds bring the potential for temporary blizzard conditions and drifting of lying snow, mainly over high ground.Ē
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