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The All New 16/17 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Whitegold wrote:
gores95 wrote:
Hey guys Zermatt is always on the edge of these snow maps and really hasn't gotten much from all these recent storms. How are they looking this week? I arrive Friday and have been thinking hard about switching to St. Anton but might have to pay hotel cancellation fees. Flying into Zurich from USA. Thanks.



Zermatt is due 6-12 inches of snow next week, which will freshen up the onpiste. But it has less than half its lifts open, so is still struggling.

St Anton has just over half its lifts open, so is in slightly better shape. But still having a bad season, also.

Number of lifts open is rarely a good measure of how good conditions are.
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gores95 wrote:
Is Zermatt considered Southern or Western Alps....or both??? Very confusin LOL! Puzzled


Western and Northern?

West of Voralberg/Grigioni E/W general area of demarcation
On/to the North of the main watershed... catches the Atlantic fronts but some snow spills over from the south

Not far from an Alpine bullseye! Well within the triple ring anyway Madeye-Smiley
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Zermatt lifts were closed today and a few days ago due to high winds not lack of snow. I'm sure off piste is a no go but reports are good above 2000 meters.
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Looks pretty good on GFS for the northern side of the Alps this morning. The op run was a bit of an outlier in terms of potential snowfall so I been a bit cautious there.



Very cold again next weekend. Following week from about 18 January (ie FI) looks a bit milder and generally dry.


Last edited by You need to Login to know who's really who. on Mon 9-01-17 8:38; edited 1 time in total
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@nozawaonsen, more snowy goodness for Austria in that map Very Happy
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@clarky999, off piste yesterday was a vaste improvement, breaking down onto Friday's new base rather than the bare earth. Lots of happy hollering in the meadows between the trees. Still not deep enough to cover rocks and treee stumps mind you!
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gores95 wrote:
Is Zermatt considered Southern or Western Alps....or both??? Very confusin LOL! Puzzled


It is North of the alpine ridge, so Northern.
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high pressure coming back from the 17th?
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@danieljw, I'm not a weather god, but it did look like that on the charts I was looking at. More than a week out so hopefully we'll both be wrong. snowHead
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from a purely selfish perspective, a week of snow in the 3 Valleys allowing all pistes to open, followed by the re-introduction of high pressure resulting in a blue sky week commencing on the 21st would not be the worst thing to happen!
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nozawaonsen wrote:
@clarky999, off piste yesterday was a vaste improvement, breaking down onto Friday's new base rather than the bare earth. Lots of happy hollering in the meadows between the trees. Still not deep enough to cover rocks and treee stumps mind you!


Sounds like its game on, finally!! Very Happy
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Quote:

from a purely selfish perspective, a week of snow in the 3 Valleys allowing all pistes to open, followed by the re-introduction of high pressure resulting in a blue sky week commencing on the 21st would not be the worst thing to happen!

Depends I guess on definition of 'a week of snow'! - 7 x 0.1cm = 0.7cm - on previous form perhaps best to hope for a lot and expect a little. Not sure how much needed to open all 3 Valleys, but opening & keeping open (ie.skiable - no stones etc.) are maybe two different things?? Personally would just love it to arrive by the metre - sort out the problems after.
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You know what they say, too much of a good thing. Although, the way this storm came into the Sierra's was not necessarily good.

http://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Ski-resorts-near-Lake-Tahoe-shut-down-due-to-storm-10843655.php

Don't recall the last time all the Tahoe area ski resorts were closed. But Ski Patrol has its work cut out. More snow is coming, and coming, and coming...

Check this pic out from Glen Plake's Instagram at Tahoe for an idea of what I'm talking about.

https://www.instagram.com/p/BO7yWlmg1zh/?taken-by=glenplake&hl=en
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You know it makes sense.

Pyrenees, North Alps and Central Italy all benefit from the next 10 days. Southern Alps not so much.
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@Jellybeans1000,
After this series of storms are we looking at high pressure again? Looks like it to my very amateur eye.
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danieljw wrote:
high pressure coming back from the 17th?


Might not go amiss.

Many parts of the Alps due 4 or 5 snowy days from Tue or Wed.
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Ptspeak wrote:
@Jellybeans1000,
After this series of storms are we looking at high pressure again? Looks like it to my very amateur eye.

On GFS after the 17th Jan ATM
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This shows how 12z GFS distributes the snowfall. As ever it is more useful as a general tool than for the figures which will go up and down.



As was the case last week it is very much the northern side of the Alps which will benefit the most though there does look like there could be some useful spill across into NW Italy.

There could well be done strong winds and stormy weather towards the end of the week.

At present Austria looks likely to do well out of the next snow cycle. Driving along the Saalach last night the area was deep in snow and it looks there is more on the way too.

Out in FI? Fine weather and high pressure looks like making at least a brief return, though on this run in furthest FI snow makes a come back around 23 January, but that of course is far FI. Meanwhile the siege of the south continues.
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Jellybeans1000 wrote:

Southern Alps not so much.

Sorry if this has already been discussed but which resorts (no need for an exhaustive list) do you consider to be Southern Alps as opposed to say Western alps? I think I understand that Austria is in the East!!
Thanks for your help...
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@RetroBod, those resorts south of the main Alpine ridge. That's mainly Italy, but the southern part of the Frencg Alps and a few southern parts of Switzerland and Austria.

This link shows you the distribution. Though you will need to locate your resort on a map for it to be of real help.

http://www.zamg.at/histalp/project/maps/station_map.php

Southern versus western doesn't make a whole lot of sense as you can be in the west or east and still either be to the north or south.


Last edited by Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do. on Mon 9-01-17 18:51; edited 1 time in total
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@RetroBod, look back a few pages for the map I annotated and you should get an idea. Or look at the Alps on Google Maps - anything south of the main alpine ridge (the crescent shaped spine of the Alps) counts as the Southern Alps.
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Mares' tails in the sky over Aosta this afternoon.
It begins.
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Thanks both although it tells me what I expected to be true........ that I'm headed for the south (ish)!! But still a few weeks to go so Im ever hopeful and waiting on your quarterly daily updates!!
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nozawaonsen wrote:


http://www.zamg.at/histalp/project/maps/station_map.php

Southern versus western doesn't make a whole lot of sense as you can be in the west or east and still either be to the north or south.


I like that map.

From a weather viewpoint systems coming in from the Atlantic can penetrate down to the south of the Vercors, the col of Lus la Croix Haute is a barrier and up the Romanche valley to the Lauteret but have trouble penetrating beyond. So Serre Chevalier is in the Southern French Alps, Les Deux Alps in the North, despite only a few km separating them and Serre Chav being only a few km further south.

The alpine ridge forms a barrier to Northerly weather systems and a barrier to retours d'Est etc.
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nozawaonsen and davidof, fascinating, thank you.
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Jellybeans1000 wrote:

Pyrenees, North Alps and Central Italy all benefit from the next 10 days. Southern Alps not so much.


Certainly all of the local forecasts here in the Pyrenees are in line with snow arriving here overnight for the first time since the end of November. The amount of snow is still in question however the concensus seems to be averaging around 40 - 50cm (though some are predicting over a metre in the next 7 days).

All I can say is that I cannot wait - even planned a night out in Vielha (almost 1000m) to enjoy some tapas and a walk in the snow tomorrow Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy
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You need a Mediterranean Low in most cases to snow in the Southern Alps.
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Jellybeans1000 wrote:
You need a Mediterranean Low in most cases to snow in the Southern Alps.


Who do I have to pay? snowHead

Ah, in fairness, I think the Via Lattea is going to take a little bit of this weeks snow. Not a lot, but enough to top up what we got early season.

Great to see this topic back on track and people focusing on lots and lots of white stuff!
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@Toadman, amazing what's falling in California. I saw a video of a reservoir overflow which is located somewhere along the main valley between Tahoe and Sacramento earlier, it's at bursting point Sad

Why is I80 closed heading towards Truckee?

Also after some advice. I have 3 weeks off work, last two in march and first week of April and want a mix of ski, and sunshine. What are the realistic temperatures in LA the first week in April? Thinking of combining Mammoth, Tahoe and LA, or should I just fly to Florida for the sunshine?
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[quote="davidof"]
nozawaonsen wrote:


http://www.zamg.at/histalp/project/maps/station_map.php

despite only a few km separating them and Serre Chav being only a few km further south.


Oi, less of the "Chav" Very Happy
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RetroBod wrote:
Jellybeans1000 wrote:

Southern Alps not so much.

Sorry if this has already been discussed but which resorts (no need for an exhaustive list) do you consider to be Southern Alps as opposed to say Western alps? I think I understand that Austria is in the East!!
Thanks for your help...


This is handy. CG
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davidof wrote:
Tuesday - Thursday not looking like a game changer in the French Northern Alps. Maybe 20-30cm in the pre-alps, less in the interior ranges. So similar to this week, a bit more sustained snowfall locally.


This may turn out to be a slight overestimate.
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WRF out to Friday lunchtime.

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Ricklovesthepowder wrote:
@Toadman, amazing what's falling in California. I saw a video of a reservoir overflow which is located somewhere along the main valley between Tahoe and Sacramento earlier, it's at bursting point Sad

Why is I80 closed heading towards Truckee?

Also after some advice. I have 3 weeks off work, last two in march and first week of April and want a mix of ski, and sunshine. What are the realistic temperatures in LA the first week in April? Thinking of combining Mammoth, Tahoe and LA, or should I just fly to Florida for the sunshine?


@Ricklovesthepowder

Temps in LA will probably be in the low 20's C during April. But this being a La Nina season, Southern Cal has been getting cooler temps and wetter conditions than has been the norm. So hard to say that far out. March could see Tahoe and Mammoth getting slammed with snow.
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Big contrast between ECM and GFS this evening after next weekend.

ECM 12z



GFS 12z

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Madonna Di Campaglio? Trentino

Newbie here - trying desperately to seek any weather chart which gives a slight chance of snow? I know they are good with snow cannons but my missus will not be happy if its not all snow covered!!!
All I can see for the next 10 days is sun sun & more sun! We go on 4th Feb...seriously worried!
Can anyone offer anything positive?
CHEERS!!!!!

Stu
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@nozawaonsen, I'm no expert but not sure that GFS is what we want?
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@RetroBod, you want ECMi believe.
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RetroBod wrote:
@nozawaonsen, I'm no expert but not sure that GFS is what we want?

Nope, some snow to Austria apart from that not much.
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[quote="KenX"]
davidof wrote:
nozawaonsen wrote:


http://www.zamg.at/histalp/project/maps/station_map.php

despite only a few km separating them and Serre Chav being only a few km further south.


Oi, less of the "Chav" Very Happy


We of an Antipodean sensibility refer to as "Serre Bogan" Toofy Grin Toofy Grin Toofy Grin
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