 Poster: A snowHead
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Quick overview from LWD Tirol on last winter's conditions in Tirol.
http://lawinenwarndienst.blogspot.co.uk/2016/07/sommerpause-kurzer-ruckblick-auf-die.html
- winter started very late.
- snow depth frequently (significantly) below average.
- temperatures 2.7C above average.
- InnerAlpin (southern part of Tirol) had a persisent problem with old snow.
- More stable in the northern part of Tirol.
- 8 avalanche fatalities.
Most of the InnerAlpin fatalities were as a result of a weak layer (depth hoar) which lasted from early winter [as a result of the low snow depth in the early part of the season]. The majority of avalanches were on north facing slopes (often also very steep slopes).
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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A very widespread picture, probably, given that yet again 2015 broke records for heat, globally, and 2016 looks like going one better. 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@pam w, current global climate of course means little in terms of the weather we are likely to see in the Alps come next winter. Not disagreeing about the background picture mind you. Just that it doesn't give us much in the way of an idea of what might come in winter in Europe.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Pam_W makes a fair point.
The world is melting, the European Alps are drying, and ski seasons everywhere are shortening.
As the world gets hotter, the chance of a vintage Winter lessens with every passing year.
This is the 2015 NASA global heat map. 2016 is set to be even warmer...
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@Whitegold, no. You are talking nonsense. Again.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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The thing that is fun with the weather - at least here in the UK (and probably elsewhere too) is how rapidly it can change, and how short our memories are.
Not so long ago we were having the worst summer ever: all rain and cold and floods.
Now its the hottest summer ever, and soon we will be getting drought warnings.
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A warming global climate does not necessarily mean less snow in winter. Indeed it can lead to above average snow. Of course what that means in specific regions will vary from year to year, one part of the northern hemisphere can be snowy another less so, one part of the Alps can be snowy another less so. But simplifying it to say that a warming global climate equates to a warmer winter or indeed less snow cover is an oversimplification. That's not to question the statistics showing the climate is warming nor to argue that it isn't changing global snow patterns.
Here's a recent piece from NOAA looking at the last Snow Year (snow year's run from 01 July).
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/beyond-data/happy-snow-new-year-ncei
"The 2015-16 snow season mirrored the general changes that we have seen in Northern Hemisphere snow cover over the past 50 years. There was an above-average snow cover during most of the cold season, but it was followed by a rapid decrease in snow cover during the transition seasons and during the warmest parts of the year. This past snow year and the longer-term trends in snow cover highlight that, even though we live in a warming world, the coldest parts of the year in the Northern Hemisphere can still support relatively large snow cover extents, at least for now."
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Quote: |
current global climate of course means little in terms of the weather we are likely to see in the Alps come next winter.
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Indeed. I'm certainly hoping for a good cold one, with enough precipitation but also plenty of sunshine. 
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@Whitegold, yep you just don't understand.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Moving on from the hyperbolic wailing and gnashing of the world is melting, the world is on fire... and noting that the snow in the deserts of Kuwait has always been at the medicore end of the scale... and pausing just to repeat that a warming global climate whilst important gives us little real indication as to whether next winter will be good, bad or indifferent in Europe.
Here's some early thoughts from Gavin Partridge, at this stage indicating that there is less to indicate that next winter will be so dominated by the Atlantic (so less indication of a very +NAO), but of course early days...
http://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter2016-17-forecast-uk.php
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
Moving on from the hyperbolic wailing and gnashing of the world is melting, the world is on fire... and noting that the snow in the deserts of Kuwait has always been at the medicore end of the scale... and pausing just to repeat that a warming global climate whilst important gives us little real indication as to whether next winter will be good, bad or indifferent in Europe.
Here's some early thoughts from Gavin Partridge, at this stage indicating that there is less to indicate that next winter will be so dominated by the Atlantic (so less indication of a very +NAO), but of course early days...
http://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter2016-17-forecast-uk.php |
It is hard fact, whether you like it or not.
The world was 30% covered in ice 15k years ago, now it is 10% and falling fast. The world is melting.
Snowfall in the Alps has shrunk around -20% in the past 40 years. The Alps are drying.
Killington in North America used to open from Oct to Jun. Now it struggles to make Dec to Apr. Seasons are shortening.
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You know it makes sense.
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@Whitegold, I wonder if you are reading what I have written.
I have certainly not disagreed that the Global Climate was the warmest on record in 2015, nor that this is important, nor that this will have an impact on snowfall patterns.
The weather this coming winter in the Northern Hemisphere, Europe, the Alps or Dicks T bar may be colder than average, it may be warmer than average. It may be snowier than average, there may be less snow than average. The background Global Climate however, is not a good indicator of this and indeed as the NOAA report shows clearly a warmer Global Climate may actually lead to above average snowfall.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@nozawaonsen, It's easier to just add him to the ignore list 
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Zorrac wrote: |
| @snowheads68, Its an option available as a super snowhead |
Perhaps @Whitegold is the evil required to drive up membership numbers and get better bashes? 
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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CFSv2 ENSO model (see first post p1) only briefly touching La Niña territory now. Time for that to change, but certainly for now the trend is for a very weak La Niña or neutral ENSO. So ENSO drivers for next season not looking strong at present.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Down south Grasshopper has some good news for those heading towards South Island.
"I am happy to report that winter’s engine is now well oiled and chugging along nicely - there is nothing that is going to stop this bad boy! Snow will continue piling up over the next few days as a series of fronts slam into the South Island on a disturbed westerly flow."
http://www.mountainwatch.com/snow-forecasts/New%20Zealand/The%20Remarkables
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Unsettled July 2016, warm and wet.
http://www.zamg.ac.at/cms/de/klima/news/wechselhafter-juli-2016-warm-und-nass
ZAMG have put out their preliminary figures for July in Austria.
- one of the warmest 15 Julys in the last 250. 1.2C above average. Although not comparable with the extremes of 2015 (warmest) or 2013 (third warmest).
- 25% wetter (in places near twice as wet) as average.
- notable that this was often as a result of intense rain over short periods leading to flooding and landslides.
Mid month also had a notable cold spell with snow briefly to relatively to low levels.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Some cold and wet weather in the Alps today especially in the east.
Hintertux could get 50cm of fresh snow down to 2400m.
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You know it makes sense.
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Jolly good - I'm off to saas fee tomorrow, looks like the weather gods are smiling upon me. Huzzah! 
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Very very localised weather today in the valley since I awoke to a superb rainbow arch.
5km up the valley to the Lautaret / Galibier you can't see the peaks and often the lower part of the valley is shrouded in mist, drizzle and rain. Whist here we have around 2 octas, a stunning difference.
There's a stiff gusty NW'ly wind that when it looks like the wet weather might be rolling down towards us picks up substantially.
Though now looks like weather is clearing.
Temps are around 10-12 degrees down (18.5 at 1,400m) on what we've been getting recently.
Have seen some hardy cyclists coming down from the direction of the Lautaret / Galibier almost in winter kit and one guy was looking very cold. Descending even in 10 degrees at 40mph in the rain, the wind chill eats right into you.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Massive thunder storms in the valleys last night (kept us awake most of the night). Constant rain during the night and most of the day.
Temperatures hovering around the 10 to 11 degree mark at 1200 mtrs. Snowed on Stelvio glacier for most of the last 20 hours.
The cyclists coming over passo Stelvio are looking very miserable. looks like tomorrow we be sunny with some cloud and warming up.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Cold here next week. Widely max of only 13 or 14 in the north. Mins down to 5C.
Disappointing for early August
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Oz and NZ getting puked on the past week.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Currently looks like another cool spell in the Alps mid week with snow down to relatively low levels in the east (+/-2300m).
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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| Whitegold wrote: |
Oz and NZ getting puked on the past week.
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What a lovely turn of phrase you have
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Fresh snow down to 2300m in Hintertux overnight.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Heavy snow in South Africa in the past couple days.
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