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The All New 17/18 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Any serious breakdown in the coming high pressure looks like being towards the end of the month.

Meanwhile...

Snow out to Monday night.



Currently rising through the golden trees into the snow line.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@red 27, I thought ensembles was the term for the model showing all of the squiggly lines? Embarassed
What's the term for an individual squiggle? Event?
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
I think each squiggly line is just a 'forecast' based on the different models being presented in the ensemble.

Of course there might be a technical term used for the line itself but it's not one I've come across myself (which doesn't mean it doesn't exist).
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This may help
http://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=14852
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Next weekend‘s weather being driven by position of this low.



06z GFS sees it digging further south which produces more cold and snow. Other runs have it further north with high pressure in charge.
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Fingers crossed
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12z GFS grinds the low across the top. It‘s messy and though it would bring a lot of wet weather, particularly in the western Alps the snow line would be high.


http://youtube.com/v/BZMepnUqpo8

It does eventually crash down at the end of the month (which a few FI runs have done of late).

Meanwhile it’s been very chilly at Planai, sun broke through later. Good grippy snow to mid station (1350m).
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Southwest Russia getting its first big fall of the season.

Sochi due 50-100cm.
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@nozawaonsen, said
Quote:
Meanwhile...

Snow out to Monday night.

Just noticed you can embed an animated gif for that chart, if you click on the little <gif> symbol, then "Générer" - pretty neat Toofy Grin

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@geoffers, nice. Had seen the gif symbol but hadn’t bothered to figure out how it worked. Cold in Schladming this evening.
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@geoffers, That is very cool
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Snowing down to at least 700m at present in central Austria.
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Great big fat snow flakes falling now.

ECM has next band of cold weather coming in Sunday week. GFS not till the end of the month. Take your pick...
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
I'll take ECM thanks.
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High pressure will build over Greenland this week.



This sort of blocking can often produce colder conditions over Europe, and lead to cold air racing south, but as @langball, said a few days ago high pressure is sitting over Europe and that wins out in the coming week. Should be sunny, but will see a thaw with the snowline rising to above 2500m. How long it lasts is the key.

Meanwhile there is a blizzard outside the hut I‘m in so I‘m off to play...
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Snowing in Innsbruck this morning - ~600m.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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The Alps may be seeing a repeat of last year.

Strong early snow, followed by heavy melting and / or dryness.

Next week will be very hot in the Alps for the time of year.

Innsbruck will see 10-15c.
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Bloody hell!

Half empty etc....

and I thought I was a pessimist......................
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Whitegold wrote:
The Alps may be seeing a repeat of last year.

Strong early snow, followed by heavy melting and / or dryness.

Next week will be very hot in the Alps for the time of year.

Innsbruck will see 10-15c.


Exaggeration... Milder temperatures (10c max) will be short lived (from Wednesday till Saturday) and it seems that from 25.11. there will be much colder again with new snow showers.
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Its just clearing the road so I can get to the apartment next weekend and get my spikes on before it snows again Toofy Grin
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Looks like my pre-Christmas break to Gressoney wasn't the best choice Sad
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tccambs wrote:
Looks like my pre-Christmas break to Gressoney wasn't the best choice Sad


Waaay to early to even think that - unless you are going this week?
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robboj wrote:
tccambs wrote:
Looks like my pre-Christmas break to Gressoney wasn't the best choice Sad


Waaay to early to even think that - unless you are going this week?


No, 16th Dec. Just getting depressed looking at the snowy webcams in Austria and France and the lovely rocks at the top of the Salati pass.

[/img]
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@tccambs, if your main motivation is off piste ... who knows?

Otherwise, if it’s nice and cold they’ll have the guns running for a Dec 1 opening (it’s busy-ish that weekend). And you have 4 weeks to go...
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I'm a pessimist.

I've bought a transceiver, shovel and probe for a 16th Dec trip. It was always tempting fate.
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@tccambs, it is very optimistic to expect good or even possible off piste that early in the season.

But hey, it might be epic.

And worst case... Italian mountain lunches in the sunshine. We should be in Champoluc (snow permitting) weekend of the 9th and I’ll post pix. Whether of snow or an epic lunch remains to be seen.
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GFS 12z has a week of warmer than average temperatures before cold weather and snow returns from 30 November.



Onbviously a bit far out, but the suggestion of a return to cold weather after a warm spell has been fairly consistent.

So. If that happened it would be another repeat of last year wouldn’t it! Er. No. Of course it may well yet turn out that way. But there is little to suggest it will at this stage.

Meanwhile lots of fun blasting through fresh snow lying to low levels today at Reiteralm.
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GFS 12Z not good for the short-medium term Sad
This Met Office chart is much nicer snowHead
Over to you ECMWF 12Z

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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Checking the ensembles the warm up until Friday is nailed on but some disparity is evident for the weekend with a reasonable number dipping back down to seasonal average temperatures. (Swiss northern alps)
Then a trend away from the persistent high pressure option. @Whitegold, your thoughts on that please?

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Boom! ECMWF 12Z goes again for cold+snow. Let's see how GFS 18Z responds to that hefty right hook.

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 Poster: A snowHead
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00z GFS and ECM both now see cold and snowy weather arriving in the Alps this weekend after what looks like being a relatively short mild spell in the coming week. Not unhelpful in some ways as it will consolidate the snow pack. GFS keeps the cold weather around for much of its run, but obviously I’d urge a little caution there.
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06z GFS has a mild week coming up from tomorrow, with plenty of sunshine.



But by Sunday cold and snow returns and GFS keeps that in place till early December (though that’s too far out to take especially seriously).

Snow till next Monday on GFS (I suspect this will shift a fair amount).

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EC 12z looks really nice.

EC Model Snowfall out to 10 days (30-60cm)

The main system that looks to produce 10-25cm across the Alps next Sunday/Monday

Then there is another system set to create up to 40cm of snowfall across the Alps on that Thursday.
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So, i take it that most believe that the mild spell wont have much negative impact, and especially not given the expected cold snowy weather next week?

Anyone with a good idea about how conditions are building up around Chamonix? Going there week 4 and 5!
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@staffsan, 4 and 5 next year?

Like 10 weeks away?
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@under a new name, yeah, why? I realise forecasts now cant say anything. Just interested in how early season is getting on there! Smile
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@staffsan, It's too soon to tempt fate. I'm trying to not get excited Toofy Grin
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@esaw1, i know, its just hard not to! Especially given recent snowember conditions and the fact that ive got a fairly new pair of all mountain skis!

But on the other hand, all skiing is good skiing. Apart from slush moguls, those are just the worst. And i guess they wont be around in January anyway Smile
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@staffsan, Sounds as though you'll have fun anyway what ever the conditions.
In my humble opinion I reckon that the worst case scenario is the cannons will cover the pistes. Sneaky feeling is that there might be a lot more going on. Enjoy the new skis Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy
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@staffsan, slushy muguls are 3rd best after 1st over the head powder and 2nd corn snow.

Seriously, while the current covering might have something to do with the snow at the end of January, it might have nothing to do with it at all.

And we won't know in the positive direction pretty much until then.

So far all we know is that there has been a little snow (more than a little in the Vorarlberg f'rinstance) and it's been reasonably cold (although it's warm today and tomorrow).
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