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The All New 18/19 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
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all I can tell you is on the sudflank it's another glorious day. is weepowder still running btw?
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Rain been getting steadily heavier in the Berchtesgaden Alps since early afternoon. Though nothing too wild. Visibility closing and temperatures falling.
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Positively chilly this morning. The snow line is parts of Austria could dip below 1500m early Sunday. Won’t last long of course, but quite a change from weeks of hot weather.

Snowfall during this cold spell looks most likely at the Austrian end of the Alps. Hintertux still looks like it could see 30cm+ on top.
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@davidof, yes
@nozawaonsen, first long pants day in months. Might get a few flakes in the west, disappointing given background, guess that low tracked too far NE for us.

Impressive from the GEM Op run to see this set up 9 days out, at the same hour slot, it's pretty close.

16th Aug forecast for 25th


actual
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Cold enough to race on snow in Livigno

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Just woke up to about 6 inches of snow.

Seems to have snowed down to about 800m.
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Yes!!! First snow of the season. How exciting!!
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Mountain tops are all encased in heavy cloud this morning, but through the bands I can see a dusting down to about 800 or 900m Toofy Grin
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Well over a foot at about 2000m.
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Dusting at the top of the mountains in the PDS this morning
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I think 48cm at Sonnblick is the highest recorded amount I‘ve seen. Parts of the Dolomites looked pretty snowy this morning too. Return to warmer conditions next week.
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Been some good snowfall in Austria, Italy, Germany, Switzerland, France, Scotland, Norway, Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, and South Africa this weekend snowHead
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Where did it snow in Scotland?
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In the sky, a long way above the hill tops Toofy Grin
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YES! I'm sooo happy that I've started looking at this thread every day already and we aren't even out of August Laughing Laughing
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 Poster: A snowHead
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@polo, mentioned another possible cooler spell at the end of the month last week.

Another brief cool spell does still look possible, more so in the eastern Alps next weekend with 20cm+ snow down to below the Fernerhaus (2600m) at Hintertux on Saturday.
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From Snow patches in Scotland Facebook page it was reported that there was snow at Cairngorm on Friday
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Now looking like 30cm+ for Hintertux down to 2300m this weekend.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
Now looking like 30cm+ for Hintertux down to 2300m this weekend.


In the words of Phil Collins ' I can feel it coming in the air tonight'.
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Farmers are predicting a very long, cold, snowy Winter in East and Central US (and Canada) for 2018 / 2019 season.

Warm in West US.

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2018/08/30/winter-will-be-teeth-chattering-cold-have-plenty-snow-farmers-almanac-claims.html

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2018 has already become the most thunderstormiest year of the century!


http://youtube.com/v/v2AC41dglnM

“2018 ANNÉE LA PLUS ORAGEUSE DU SIÈCLE EN FRANCE :

Après un printemps et un été extrêmement orageux, les données recueillies par Météorage permettent de confirmer que le nombre d'impacts de foudre recueillis en 2018 représentent d'ores et déjà un record depuis le début des mesures homogènes en 2000.

Une situation particulièrement ressentie dans les hauts massifs alpins où la plupart des journées d'été se terminaient par un orage, c'est un peu moins le cas en plaines et sur les Préalpes.

Avez-vous la sensation d'avoir connu un été extrêmement orageux ?

En guise d’illustration, un cliché de Christophe Suarez autour de Genève cet été.”
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https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com/2018/09/september-2018-19-northern-hemisphere.html

Some thoughts from myself on how the season might pan out for the Northern Hemisphere, including the Alps.
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Trees turning early in green cwm. Another cracking season is therefore guaranteed.
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Nice little chart showing the strength of the Polar Vortex.

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Met Office Contingency planners seeing an increased likelihood of milder and drier than usual conditions through Autumn with increased probability of high pressure near or over Europe (whilst noting that Autumn also often sees particular intense Atlantic depressions).

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-son-v2.pdf

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-precip-son-v2.pdf
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Jebi taking quite a swipe at Japan.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/liveblogs/news/liveblog-updates-typhoon-jebi/
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Australia is entering Spring 2018 in the Southern Hemi with above-average snow and a good season.

Ben Lomond has closed for the season. But Perisher and others doing good.

Interesting present and historical data for Oz.

http://www.mountainwatch.com/Snow-news/2018-australian-snow-season-outlook-september-update/

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-12/spencers-creek-keeps-track-australian-snowfall/8792560



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Autumn? Pah still summer.


http://youtube.com/v/LK8sxngSWaU



Mid month brings warm weather.
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Yep looks nice and settled for a while.

Interesting period of model watching coming up with tropical storms now lining up across central Africa and spinning across the atlantic. Their final path could have a big impact on our weather heading towards month end. NH profile from ECM picks up the troughs well. Bottom left corner of below graph shows 2 deep troughs, one (Florence) heading up USA eastern seaboard. If these make it further NE they will phase with the big pool of cold air above Greenland.



Very little agreement from the 3 main models about where the ridge will sit in 10 days time. GFS is bang over Europe, ECM further west (Azores to Ire), and GEM even further west. If GEM is right again, and the ridge noses up towards Greenland, this will open up the continent to a cool North Westerly and dipping jet stream.



Looking into FI on GFS shows what might happen when north meets south (trough phasing)



@Jellybeans1000 nice round up
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Sept 10th is the average peak of the hurriance / tropical storm season....models will likely struggle with all the atlantic activity, especially if any of them arc NE.

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This shows the temperature against average so far this year in the Arlberg. You can see some of that really deep cold in February and also how much of Spring and Summer has been much warmer than average.



Here is the precipitation. Again very clearly showing the snowier than average winter, but from April much drier than average.

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nozawaonsen wrote:
This shows the temperature against average so far this year in the Arlberg. You can see some of that really deep cold in February and also how much of Spring and Summer has been much warmer than average.



Here is the precipitation. Again very clearly showing the snowier than average winter, but from April much drier than average.



rainier than average from your charts, I would say. Apart from the second half of February, overall a very very warm last 12 months.

Enjoy the last decade of European skiing while it is there.
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Oh don’t be so gloomy. It’s dull.



Yes there was rain at times, but overall it was very snowy.

Warm sunny weather till at least 18 September. After that a few colder outcomes cropping up but too far out to tell.

Meanwhile Florence barrelling towards the Carolinas.
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Not wanting to be left out, my neighbours donkeys agree the ground is too dry today. Standard cloudless sunny day in the pre-alps (one of 300+ per year).
In other animal news, I saw 3 snakes this summer, having never seen one in France the previous 7 years. Sure sign of long hot dry spells. And we had 2 bats trapped in the house last night....which must mean it's...eh... getting darker in the evenings Cool



Might get some light showers in the west leading into weekend. ECM clinging to idea of cooler weather next week. GFS Op warmer outlier.
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Intense view of Florence from GOES16

https://twitter.com/noaasatellitepa/status/1039199773709033475?s=21
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Article on the BBC regarding El Niño, no idea if it’ll affect snow conditions, but thought I’d post!!

New El Niño weather event likely this winter says WMO http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-45471409
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@Handy Turnip, there’s a few posts about this on page two of this thread. There is some correlation between weak El Niño and - NAO, but it’s certainly not precise. And a - NAO doesn’t guarantee particular outcomes either.

Here’s some thoughts from Wasaatch Weather Weenies...

http://wasatchweatherweenies.blogspot.com/2018/08/my-seasonal-outlook.html?m=1
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Unusually heavy snow in South Africa this week.

Probably not good for the local giraffes, lions, elephants, etc.

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GFS still playing with occasional cold outcomes at the end of its run. The 00z op especially chilly at the eastern end of the Alps at the back end, but of course that is also the least reliable part.

Pretty good GFS ensemble support for mild weather out till 22 September now. A bit stormy Thursday and Friday.
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Not looking good for US east coast, Florence still Cat 4 and talk of record breaking rainfall as it stalls just off shore for a few days. The eye is 20 miles wide, and the cloud extends to a 340 mile diameter (about Paris to Geneva).
This side of pond, still seeing fairly chaotic model swings beyond T+168, but it does seem any ex tropical storm activity confined to British Isles, and we'll probably get the warm SW updraft.

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