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The All New 17/18 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
In between storms take a little time to catch your breath and check out some ensembles.



The Arlberg



Chamonix



Cairngorm



Sestriere



Eastern Pyrenees



Interesting times for the south...


http://youtube.com/v/ttuA1UEUAI0
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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I'm heading off to Maria Alm in Austria next month, and as ever, despite the usual admonitions to myself, I've started to get preoccupied with snow issues. I'm not daft enough to ask for a snow prediction for next month, but I would be interested to hear what conditions are like now in that area of Austria (Salzburg-ish) by comparison with what they would normally be this time of year. Anyone?
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I think pretty damn good...? Snow depths reported as 165/95 and all slopes and lifts open

Am jealous - a month to wait for me
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@J2R, I usually find Bergfex the most reliable but it only records the Hochkönig area as opposed to Maria Alm. Still the figures look good, more than adequate for an area of runs on mainly treelined meadows.

https://www.bergfex.com/hochkoenig-maria-alm-dienten-muehlbach/schneebericht/

The most reliable historical data IME comes from SCGB whose nearest staffed area is Zell am See but the repping doesn't start until tomorrow. Bergfex is reporting 20cm lower and 155cm upper slopes which when compared to SCGB historical average for this week which shows 20cm lower and 68cm upper looks good. So far.
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That's kind of the impression I'd got. I hope it holds up, as rain is forecast (although not as much as was earlier).
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J2R wrote:
That's kind of the impression I'd got. I hope it holds up, as rain is forecast (although not as much as was earlier).


Very little and today only. Mild for a few days then snow line drops and cold again.
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06z GFS still keen to make some noise as we go into second half of January.

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there was me thinking I was in for some settled weather for wk 14-21st of jan in courchevel. still a long way off, but the charts seem to be saying there's 'something' happening that week.
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J2R wrote:
I'm heading off to Maria Alm in Austria next month, and as ever, despite the usual admonitions to myself, I've started to get preoccupied with snow issues. I'm not daft enough to ask for a snow prediction for next month, but I would be interested to hear what conditions are like now in that area of Austria (Salzburg-ish) by comparison with what they would normally be this time of year. Anyone?


Maria Alm is very hot today. Almost 10c in the resort at lunchtime.

But 100% of lifts and trails are open today. Snowdepth is above-average. More than enough snow to see it through to early March.

Your trip will be fine.
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@Rob Mackley, thanks for previous info. Did you go up today?
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Parts of Italy forecast to get 2.5m of snow. Could see 1m further snow in Val d’Isere. Anticipate disruption if you are in an effected area.

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@FIRSTOFTHEGIANTS, Yes went up , not surprisingly not all was open as there has been a lot of snow this week and with the yo yo temps the pisteturs have a lot of work to do . The off piste is currently wet and heavy with a rain crust up to about 2200m above this very firm and compact . But with colder temps the humidity will gradually disappear . The base is very deep and hardly any rocks showing any new snow and the recent rain will be long forgotten .
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Sunday night into Monday is going to be an extreme weather event on the French Italian border (especially on the Italian side) and reaching up towards Zermatt.

Snowfalls amounts could reach 3m in isolated areas. Resorts like Sestriere, Zermatt and Val d‘Isere will likely see lift closures. Transport links will be effected lower down due to torrential rain. Potential for Black flags in worst effected places.

Further out GFS takes it cooler from 11 January then both throw in the Atlantic as we get into the second half of the month.

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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@nozawaonsen, what does throwing in the atlantic mean?
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What a season! Viva Italia ❄️❄️❄️
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 Poster: A snowHead
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@staffsan, the jet stream racing across the Atlantic without high pressure across Europe to block it.

The angle it approaches from is crucial, too flat from the west and it can bring milder temperatures, more from the north west much colder.

More unsettled weather and hopefully plenty of fresh snow. But with the risk of storms.

That said too far out to pick out any detail at this stage.
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Just risen above the valley clouds. Gorgeous sunshine.
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And the first year since 2008 we won't be going to Zermatt for February HT is? Yes, that's right. Interestingly the Zermatt website are only forecasting snow showers as opposed to a full blown dump for early next week. But Bergfex is on board showing a 1.6M accumulation at the top of Klein Matterhorn. Interesting times. Hopefully Tuesday's front will edge a bit more westwards too. Looks like you'll have a cracking day noza.
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Interesting times with regards to the current snow pack.

There's the normal type of variations when considering "Snow Pack Observations".




And then there's "Snow Jack Observations" if they sink straight through it's powder and then like today it's hardjack with a Jack weight bearing crust Smile



Cracking morning as you can see and pistes empty as it's transfer day.
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@nozawaonsen, any thoughts on where the snow line might be for this ‘event’ around the Tarantaise? Forecasts suggesting 1700/1800, getting lower later in the week.
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GFS 06Z is showing a decent amount of snow Tuesday-Wednesday in the Arlberg, more than other forecasts. Is GFS not sufficiently high resolution to reduce predicted snowfall amounts for the northern alps from weather systems approaching from the south?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=2547&model=gfs&var=93&run=06&lid=OP&bw=
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@Weathercam,
Quote:

Snow Jack Observations
Brilliant. And what a gorgeous photo. Very Happy
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@hd, others may have a more scientific answer, but in the last few years that I've been watching GFS predict some over spill from south to north it's never actually reached my location. Might be better higher up and deeper into alps toward main ridgeline but more likely to be localised than widespread (overspill). YR is better, also Arome and Arpegge models for near term.

What a day today is.....clear blue sky, mild, calm and dry, empty restaurants / pistes and gorgeous soft fluffy.......sludge.
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Just checking the short term for Pila.
Looking at over 1m sun, mon, tue!
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Daft question alert...... I've followed this thread for a number of years since I started skiing, I've learnt a lot but one thing that remains a mystery (even after an attempt to consult google) are the regions within the Alps referred to here (e.g. Tarentaise, Arlberg) - if I'm looking for La Plagne, which region does that fall in to?? Puzzled
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@chopkins13, it’s in the Tarentaise.



Poster from an interesting company called Apres Art.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Lovely day skiing above Leogang and Saalbach today. Leogang itself was in cloud, but the mountains were sunny and warm. A lovely taste of spring.

Pistes in excellent condition, softening nicely as the day progressed. Off piste in general best left to itself for a while. Too soft and heavy.

Ended the day with some very fine chicken.

There really is a lot snow around Salzburg above about 700m. Huge piles of it. At present it’s still a bit sodden, but don’t think just because it rained it went away.
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“Non, vous ne rêvez pas : des hauteurs de neige fraîche monstrueuses sont attendus par endroits.”



Meteo Alpes view on coming snowfall for the French side (likely to be stronger on the Italian side).

“Une situation de "retour d'Est " particulièrement dynamique va se produire entre Dimanche et Mardi. Les cumuls de neige attendus s'annoncent très importants et même exceptionnels très localement.”

https://www.meteoalpes.fr/2018/01/06/retour-d-est-neigeux-tr%C3%A8s-actif-le-point-complet/
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
there is the risk of real problems in NW Italy if the forecasts are accurate. Not only will that sort of snow cause an enormous avalanche risk but beneath 1200-1500m with such torrential rain you will be looking at damage to infrastructure including roads and bridges from flooding, mud and landslides.
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Is there still support for 'something' happening around 15-18 jan? I dont know wich models j2ski uses, but they suggest this for cham:

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@nozawaonsen, about the atlantic and the jet stream, does it look like its gonna come from northwest or west right now?
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@staffsan, Cuurently the Jetstream forecast does support something around this time. But any confidence in this would be misplaced - its just too far out. MF placing a confidence of 2/5 to 3/5 for this period. It maybe not quite be equivalent to astrology this far out, more akin to an economics forecast wink
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@staffsan, j2ski tends to get a little over optimistic with the amount of snow due to drop in FI, they tend to get a bit more realistic as the event gets closer.
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That weather heading towards Italy has already caused chaos near Madrid.

https://www.facebook.com/severeweatherEU/videos/2148561945366895/
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Is it me or is the Retour Est being far more widely used by everyone?

When I was down in the Queyras with a group and a guide (Molines) 5 or 6 years ago and the gite owner told the guide how it would be a better option to go up two valleys more to Abries that's the first time the guide had heard about it and when I got back to civilisation I googled it and only came across a couple of references to it now it's everywhere!!!

And that link Noza has posted from Meteo Alpes and the effect on various sectors is truly bizarre as they (unless I've missed it) they don't even mention the Haute Alpes and the likes of Montgenevre https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/travel/ski/S1685~Montgen%C3%A8vre which geographically is so much closer and substantially affected far more that the likes of resorts up the Maurienne ?

And then look at Prali https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/travel/ski/S3100~Prali as a comparison which allways gets it.

This time round it looks like the heaviest starts right on the border down South Limone and stretches and almost follows the border up to Pila and beyond.
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@Weathercam, obviously you were one of the first people to use the term and bring it back to civilisation. Stands to reason!

Alpes Meteo is I believe focussed on the northern Alps.
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@nozawaonsen, no need to get like that - do a search on here, quite simple !!!!

In fact one of the earliest references I found was from Davidoff in 2009 on his site and it was used to describe weather patterns in the Mercantour.

This was a trip report from 2014
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A 'retour d'est' is a French name for a phenomenon that is mostly happening in the Italian Piemonte. Literally translated, it means a return from the east. A true 'retour d'est' is created as cold air finds its way to the Gulf of Genoa through the Rhône valley and the French Alps.

Just so the rest of us know!
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Does anyone know if the Italians have a particular name for this Genoa low scenario?
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Bergfex predicting up to 150cm tomorrow at altitude val sidereal, presumeably more likely the Fornet side !
Should guarantee the season there. Shocked
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