 Poster: A snowHead
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Well someone had to kick it off , it’s gonna Snow , be cold , be mild , rain sometimes low ish down , be dry at awkward times and generally frustrate someone sometime . The weathers the weather .
Would be nice if it came bang on average if you ask me .
Over to you Snowheads
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Woo hoo! Great work @@Rob Mackley - and with possibly the most accurate weather forecast that this thread will see all year!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Ahh at last. I’d like accurate forecasts for wc Jan 6th for Megeve, then Crans Montana, then Saas Fee. Obviously no need for Saas Fee it will be snowy, or the world will have ended. I have provisional hotel bookings in all 3 which I need to cancel by first week of Dec. I’ll still have no idea then obviously, but I love the thread, and trying to see if we can get to Megeve with snow. Long term forecasts please commence!
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@twoodwar, Best you look at the the Wiggles , they are a very odd looking children’s band from Australia but apparent very good at long term weather forecasts that are never right , apparently 2ms due on the 10thJan in Zermatt .
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Thanks Rob for starting things off. Reading the references to Nozza in last year's final few entries on the thread made me realise that he is missed by more than just myself.
If anyone knows - is there any way we could 'bribe' him to return??
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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The week we go skiing in January we always get snow at home.
This is fine if we have already departed but not if we are still to get to the airport.
Who would think we could get snow in Scotland in January.
Last edited by You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net. on Thu 21-09-23 11:51; edited 1 time in total
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@Rob Mackley, Winter will be here in October & over by December if our summer is anything to go by 
*licks finger & sticks it in the air*
We are in for an epic season.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| kapt wrote: |
Thanks Rob for starting things off. Reading the references to Nozza in last year's final few entries on the thread made me realise that he is missed by more than just myself.
If anyone knows - is there any way we could 'bribe' him to return?? |
+1
Or, just to check all is well with them.
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| jellemr wrote: |
| kapt wrote: |
Thanks Rob for starting things off. Reading the references to Nozza in last year's final few entries on the thread made me realise that he is missed by more than just myself.
If anyone knows - is there any way we could 'bribe' him to return?? |
+1
Or, just to check all is well with them. |
+2
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You know it makes sense.
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August 28th as posted by JohnMo on thr Zermatt thread
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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You can't always get what you want.....but if you try sometimes at least @Whitegold is back.....if anyone can tempt another SH out of hibernation 'they' can.
Have mixed feelings posting here and had a vague plan to start a substack blog, so did some pre season research, and for now, I'll contribute occasionally here....let's see how many toys get thrown out of the pram, and how the thread progresses, hopefully less drift, self indulgence, sarcasm, trolling (unless humorous whitegold variant).
So where to start, well last seasons drama as good as any. Nov-Apr monthly anomalies:
     
Nov average climate synoptic but not as good as many pre season nov's in recent memory
Dec started well, epic day on the 17th, but the dreaded SW flow was dominant.....low pressure running from bay of biscay SW-NE brought mild wet early snow pack destruction below 1600m
Jan much better albeit bad start, mid Jan was season saving for many, as mid atlantic ridge and some decent NW flow towards alps
Feb dry and sunny.....thin hard snow pack, with occasional artificial layer
Mar quite a westerly pattern, but again too much SW-NE tllt, but decent for high altitude
Apr probably the second best month with some useful snow to low levels
Overall, Dec- Mar pressure anomaly looked like this, despite Greenland high. was generally dry and mild, with blocking to the east and a scandi low that couldn't dig south
Quick note on how to read these charts. The jet stream tends to run between low pressure (blues) and high (reds). It runs anticlockwise around the low, and clockwise around the high (Northern Hemishphere).
Looking at dec as an example, the jet (which carries our weather), ran from Scandi down to the east atlantic, then turned back up and headed NE across the alps. The cold side of the jet was therefore just north of Scotland, while the warm side was running directly into the alps, bringing warm air from the south atlantic and north africa.
Note a ridge is just the opposite of a trough. It's a wide area of strong high pressure usually flanked by low pressure. A block is similar but tends to be longer lasting, ie a blocking high can sit in the same area for over a month.
Next up ENSO....the only question is how strong will the new El Nino be? Moderate would be less than +1.5c, strong is 1.5 to 2, while super is north of 2.0c, re. water temp anomaly east pacific.
Latest CFS forecast
As of yesterday, the main model forecast (above) is averaging 2.0c above average for mid ENSO region, peaking Nov. So a very strong signal, but it has backed off a bit recently, and several experts think this model has an early bias to overstate peak strength. In general we don't want to see a super strong El Nino, while there are only a few examples, they haven't produced cold winters, see 97-98 and 15-16 below.
 
Looking at some of the moderate to strong El Ninos, we see a more mixed picture: 09-10, 02-03. 91-92, 87-88
   
But the 2 recent ones, 09-10 and 02-03 were cold winters (first 2 images), with favourable blocking to the north and a southerly jet. 87-88 also decent, so 3 out of 4.
Caveat wise, there isn't a clear relationship between ENSO state and european weather, and the above are 4 month anomalies, so that hides a huge amount of detail on how each winter played out.
Bottom line, these are just for illiustration, and may not have much predictive value.
I'll summarise some stuff I've read about El Nino here though......they are characterised by weaker trade winds in the pacific, so convection shifts from indonesia to mid ocean, leading to low pressure in the north pacific and highs over western North America. Southerly jet favours the lower states (west Canada often drier), with heavy precipitation running Texas to Florida.
For Europe, it's less evident, but loosely you might expect less greenland blocking, stronger westerly jet, and historically a back loaded winter.....ie Mar colder than Dec.
Now, for the twist.....despite all the above, several long range models are forecasting northern blocking and low pressure over europe....something like a 09-10 or 02-03 pattern. I haven't been thru all the long rangers yet, but read comments that it's unusual to see them modelling a euro low. I'll keep an eye on them....but as mentioned previously, they are long range anomaly charts, that often differ from each other, and none have a good track record....that I know of.
Oh one more thing.....QBO is in the easterly phase this winter, generally a good thing for slowing down westerly flow and encouraging colder set ups. And the triple combination of -QBO, strong El Nino and peak solar sun spots has never occured before...at least since records of all 3 began. So there is no template or matching anomaly from the past.....we truly are in unchartered territory this winter.
Pile those toys up at the side of your pram.
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Poster: A snowHead
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@polo, Great start and thank you .
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@Rob Mackley, no worries, ignore my thread tone preference ramble, what kind of forum doesn't feature self-indulgent ranters, we're all different, and have different wants and preferences.....and am not a fan of rules in general
Presume you've seen the UK forecast for next week....too early to be called an Indian summer, but a throwback to June for sure, with probably 6-7 days of warm dry and sunny. ECM mean peaking at 8-12C above average next week, would suggest high 20's at surface
One more useless data trivia, there has never been a cold winter in the UK following a warm September (defined as avg CET above 15c). So either hope for an immediate cool down into weeks 2-4, or believe that this is the season to break all historical analogues.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| Quote: |
And the triple combination of -QBO, strong El Nino and peak solar sun spots has never occured before...at least since records of all 3 began. So there is no template or matching anomaly from the past.....we truly are in unchartered territory this winter.
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Exciting times!!! Maybe it's the magic formula for snowmaggedon! 
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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[quote="Handy Turnip"]
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And the triple combination of -QBO, strong El Nino and peak solar sun spots has never occured before...at least since records of all 3 began. So there is no template or matching anomaly from the past.....we truly are in unchartered territory this winter.
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So since the late 1990s then 
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Hi I'm thinking of booking trip for the third week in February anyone know which resort will have the best snow that week thanks in advance
Also should I visit a dry slope before I go
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I’ll let you know how Zermatt is the 2nd week of Feb
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Also, good to see you post @polo,
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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3rd week of feb?.....there's an easy answer to this, anywhere with lifts above 1000m. CFS daily has 9 months of fantasy charts from the imaginary future, with week of 19th Feb 24 looking loaded
FYI, Data for solar cycles starts 1750, ENSO 1870, QBO 1950's
Severe weather first winter forecast here
https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2023-2024-seasonal-models-snowfall-predictions-united-states-canada-europe-fa/
TLDR summary....historical average El Nino pressure pattern shows blocking NW of europe but too close to Ire, would likely be chilly in the eastern alps.
ECM snowfall prediction for NDJ (nov dec jan) shows strongly above average snowfall for the alps, while UKMO shows strong below average. And that sums up the long range model usefulness from 2 of the best.
Found a new tool on meteociel for long range multimodel forecasts. While we know they aren't very good beyond a few weeks, it won't stop us looking at the data. I have always been a fan of averaging all the model output so here it is
C35 mulitmodel northern hemisphere NDJ - dry over Canada, southerly tracking jet, probably -AO / less so NAO
Zooming in on europe, not the worst case, at least there isn't a strong euro block.
That was the August update, will keep an eye on the evolution of this NDJ forecast as each month rolls in, as all you can really say about these is whether the trend gets better or worse.
UK this week, question now is whether the all time Sep record gets broken, 32.4c I believe.
No change in the current outlook, high pressure dominating europe.....my least favourite place for lows is when they form off Iberia, driving heat into central europe.
All 3 main model mean charts look like this for next sunday
Arrows illustrate wind direction / temp flow......normally you'd get cool air around right flank of Scandi high, but it's too low latitude wise, bringing in SE warmth instead of NE cold.
And the Iberian low.....only knows one thing, tropical heat.
Still this time of year there are many tropical feature curveballs (hurricanes) zipping around the atlantic to interfere with model output. Normally in El Nino you'd expect a less active atlantic hurricane season with the strong SST anomalies over in the east Pacific. However this year the atlantic is also way above avg temp....so potential for many tropical storms.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Let’s hope it comes good.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@polo, actual lol!
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| 8611 wrote: |
Hi I'm thinking of booking trip for the third week in February anyone know which resort will have the best snow that week thanks in advance
Also should I visit a dry slope before I go |
I'm hearing that the Tete Ronde blue in Val Thorens will have a 168 centimetre base with 13 centimetres of fresh snow on top at the start of that week.
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You know it makes sense.
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Red Saharan dust covering cars here in North Yorkshire after the rain showers this morning 
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| 8611 wrote: |
| Hi I'm thinking of booking trip for the third week in February anyone know which resort will have the best snow that week thanks in advance |
Sorry, I only know up to the second week in Feb.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Yes, dust in Liverpool too. Needless to say washed both my wife’s and my car and polished mine on Tuesday 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| Peter S wrote: |
| Red Saharan dust covering cars here in North Yorkshire after the rain showers this morning |
same here, a little downpour & my car is filfthy... or a layer of protection to the paint work. Will need to be jetwashed off
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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well, only in GR was a disaster...never seen something like this .. till now. At least in Europe
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Hintertux has been 10-15c for weeks at 3200m and not freezing at night.
Glacier is getting wrecked.
Austria is hotter than the One Chip Challenge.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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On a side note, and at the risk of indulging a small sample size / media hype, the weather has been MENTAL this year. Floods in Greece, those crazy fist sized hailstones in Lombardy, coming more or less at same time as heatwave. Wettest August on record at home (Ireland) absurd heat waves at times.
If we are in for a similar winter, christ its going to be interesting.
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It’s difficult to imagine that all this latent heat in the system is going to help the start of winter ?
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@Peter S, Heat is energy which can lead to storms, which from my limited understanding is why the southern alps often get hit early in the season- energy from the Med
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@leggyblonde, yes the Southern alps and the Pyrenees have been renowned to get early snow in the past although that’s been a bit all over the place the last few years . Spanish Pyrenees always target the Dec 6th bank holiday to open if they can .
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Yes instability and saturated air is great for heavy snowfall. My concern is where will the cool air that it needs to come into contact with, come from.
Last edited by You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net. on Sat 9-09-23 8:20; edited 1 time in total
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| Peter S wrote: |
| It’s difficult to imagine that all this latent heat in the system is going to help the start of winter ? |
I don’t know that it works that way. I could be wrong though.
We regularly have 40 degree temps in our alpine region - sometimes in late March. And the snow still comes and stays even at our poor altitude and latitude.
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FAQ
