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Calling all the weather experts....

 Poster: A snowHead
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Tignes on the 19th is now very close. Whats in store for the coming week to 10 days. Any fresh on the cards NehNeh Puzzled Confused
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Yesterday I'd have said keep an eye on Friday, but at the moment all the models have the HP over the central med too high and the cold front gets pushed north. Looks quite warm this week. You'll have to hope that they've overdone the high pressure and the front manages to push through.
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 brian
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HARRYMAC2702, looks like your timing may be not bad at all wink

Edit: as skanky points out, Friday has had a bit of a GFS downgrade (looks a little better on ECM ?) although it looks good for more snow events in the early part of the next week. Is it a week or a weekend you're going for ?
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skanky wrote:
Yesterday I'd have said keep an eye on Friday, but at the moment all the models have the HP over the central med too high and the cold front gets pushed north. Looks quite warm this week. You'll have to hope that they've overdone the high pressure and the front manages to push through.

I think the current UKMO FAX chart has an occluded front reaching the Alps on Friday (is that right?). What effect would that have on temperatures and precipitation?
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snow-forecast has snow showers Thurs, then more showers Fri, with snow Sat & Sun, F/L around 2800m Thurs, dropping to 2350 by Sunday. 10cm+ looks possible.

regards,

Greg
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brian, At last i may be on for some fresh when im actually skiing!! Going for a week but may do a daytrip over to val thorens if the snow lasts but judging from the above comments it looks set to get warmer this week. Have you seen kaprun and the kitzeinhorn ski areas- they had 50cm of fresh over the weekend... Crying or Very sad
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I'm not an expert (merely an interested/incomplete dabbler), but the latest FAX for Friday (+120hr) has the fronts stalling on the edge of the HP, but it does develop a wave over the southern Alps (the cold front develops a warm front in it) which may develop into a small LP area. This is what's being progged to bring the showers. However waves are not that easy to pick up at this range as they're pretty small scale. ECMWF, GFS & UKMO are showing it to different degrees (UKMO is most bullish), so it's worth keeping an eye on it. GFS downgraded it for the 06z run, the other models may follow suit in their 12z runs, or GFS may flip back.

GFS is predicting the jet to be diffluent (diverging - causing instability) there which is possibly what's disrupting the front (but this is now stretching my knowledge and abilities here) - look at the 300hpa wind chart. The main worry with it is the fact that the temperatures look warm (the big problem with the cold front stalling), so freezing temps could be quite high.

The occluded front looks to be decaying so I don't think there'll be a huge amount of stuff associated with it (though if a few mountains can't get anything from it, nothing can). If it was still a well formed front, then an occluded front is one where the cold air has caught up with and undercut the warm front. They can bring a lot a of wet weather and it does mean that the worst of the warm air (such that it is in winter) is avoided - however depending on how occluded it is, it can bring warmer air in higher up the mountain than lower down (I can't recall an example though, so I don't know how often that happens in the Alps).


Last edited by Then you can post your own questions or snow reports... on Mon 13-11-06 11:43; edited 1 time in total
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HARRYMAC2702, has Val Thorens confirmed they're going to open on the 18th? Unless there is a big dump of snow between now and then I can't imagine they're going to have anything open other than a few pistes they've used their snow cannons on.
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Quote:
Have you seen kaprun and the kitzeinhorn ski areas- they had 50cm of fresh over the weekend...


I'm sure someone can provide the statistics to prove me wrong, but if I was going at this time of year, I'd head East...on what (I perceive to be) the percentages.
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skanky, thanks. What do you think is the likelihood that the HP over the Med won't be as strong as currently predicted? Is it easy to get location wrong for HP systems?

Also, where do you see the ECMWF forecasts?
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rob@rar, on the website last night a statement was posted saying that snow conditions permitting they would open for the 18th. Cant comment any further as im only going on what they posted. Although if you check this mornings cam shot they have had a decent fall.
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skanky, im seriously considering changing to austria as long as the other mebers of the party agree! Whats in store weather wise for austria during the same period. Cheers.
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HARRYMAC2702 wrote:
Although if you check this mornings cam shot they have had a decent fall.

I think that's a bit deceptive - I don't think they had much more than 5 or 10cm, and it's currently quite warm there (0º isotherm is above 3,500m).
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Metcheck shows snow for Friday at Serre Chevalier.
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rob@rar, can't answer your first question, unfortunately. Not enough experience.

As for ECMWF, well there is their site: http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500
Also Wetterzentrale has an ECMWF section in Top Karten.
There's also West Winds: http://www.westwind.ch/
And Weather Online: http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/profi/en/ecmwf/ecmwf.html
Net weather: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ecm;sess= (I keep thinking I should subscribe to their extra stuff)
And last but not least (it provides extra info), as supplied by brian: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=0&mode=0
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 Poster: A snowHead
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HARRYMAC2702, AFAICS weatherwise not much difference to France for this week and just as warm. Their main advantage is that parts there have already had some snow. Don't know how well it'll last this week. There are people here who live there who should give a better idea on that front.
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rob@rar wrote:
HARRYMAC2702 wrote:
Although if you check this mornings cam shot they have had a decent fall.

I think that's a bit deceptive - I don't think they had much more than 5 or 10cm, and it's currently quite warm there (0º isotherm is above 3,500m).


And warm weather over the next couple of days. I would put the fresh at 7cm Happy, most of that will burn off pretty quickly as the ground is still quite warm (I measured +6C at 2000 m in the shade a couple of days ago).

I'm not sure why every resort started their snow canons last week when it was obviously going to get warm again - my local resort had a piste covered and that has now all but melted. Is there method in their madness or are they desperate, or insane? The only idea I had was that if they don't run the cannons when there is a cold snap they risk the pipes freezing all winter as there is no snow cover to insulate the ground?
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 brian
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davidof, maybe trying to cool down the ground a bit ?
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skanky wrote:
As for ECMWF, well there is their site: http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500

Thanks - do you use ECMWF to check the position of fronts, or only pressure systems?
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davidof wrote:
... I would put the fresh at 7cm Happy

Glad my guesstimating wasn't too far off the mark Smile
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It's possible to spot fronts with just the isobars, but it's more difficult. If there are "kinks" in the isobars around a LP in the same way that a stream or gully would appear on a contour map, that tends to indicate a a front. The first chart you see at that link has a front running down the West coast of Wales & Portugal just to the West of the high winds (green & yellow). They can be quite subtle though. I do also compare the systems to those of other models to gauge the level of agreement, then pick the details off the more forthcoming charts (eg GFS & now the ones at that last link).
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skanky wrote:
If there are "kinks" in the isobars around a LP in the same way that a stream or gully would appear on a contour map, that tends to indicate a a front.

Thanks, I didn't know that. One more thing to try and remember when looking at the charts!
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rob@rar, you can often see the same thing on the FAX charts, though again it's not always obvious.
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how come the temps are set to rise alot higher this week. Its the middle of november so surley it should be alot colder than this?
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HARRYMAC2702, Metcheck shows them falling towards the weekend though.
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HARRYMAC2702 wrote:
how come the temps are set to rise alot higher this week. Its the middle of november so surley it should be alot colder than this?


Down in France at least things are very influenced by whether the air is coming from the south or north. If the wind blows from the south you can have 20 degrees in January, on the other hand if the wind blows from the North you can have snow in the summer. We seem to have spent most of the autumn with warm air currents coming up from the south - Spain, Africa but without much rain.
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HARRYMAC2702 wrote:
how come the temps are set to rise alot higher this week. Its the middle of november so surley it should be alot colder than this?

The air that is approaching the Alps is coming from the south west, up over the Atlantic. At those lower latitudes the air and the sea below it is relatively warm. If the air was coming down from northerly latitudes it would be much colder.
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 brian
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GFS 12z rolling now and looking better, mega-dumpage through Saturday for France especially Oisans and southwards. FL around 2250, snowline 2000m-ish ?

So a good deal of uncertainty about, but it's got to be better than a boring big high ! Very Happy
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
brian, Very Happy Very Happy
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skanky, I see that you are also "nutty" about the weather Laughing Laughing Same as me!!. Blush

I do subscribe to WeatheronLine for the UK and Europe radar maps. I reckon at £19.90 per annum with its 10 day forecasts it is good value for money.

I would also have a look at www.westwind.ch for a good selection of weather sites. It also has a section on radar maps which is handy for the snow in the alps.
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DAVID SNELL, check out http://www.meteox.com/h.aspx?r=holiday&jaar=-3&soort=loop3uur&c=uk esp their Google Earth radar overlay. Very Happy (there should be a sad geek smilie)
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snow-forecast now has 8cm, Friday, 23cm on Sat, fingers crossed for you Harrymac702!
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kitenski wrote:
snow-forecast now has 8cm, Friday, 23cm on Sat, fingers crossed for you Harrymac702!


Wooohoooo! snowHead Bet that changes though! Sad Do you know what the temps/freezing level are like? It needs to keep snowing and stay on the ground for 2 Dec Toofy Grin
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cathy wrote:
kitenski wrote:
snow-forecast now has 8cm, Friday, 23cm on Sat, fingers crossed for you Harrymac702!


Wooohoooo! snowHead Bet that changes though! Sad Do you know what the temps/freezing level are like? It needs to keep snowing and stay on the ground for 2 Dec Toofy Grin


Well it has changed downwards Sad

They now reckon showers Wed thru Sat, heaviest Fri overnight to Sat, with about 10cm forecast. F/L >3000m today, dropping to 2200m by Sun night....
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brian, do you think tignes will have enough to open more than the glacier runs by this time next week Puzzled Very Happy
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HARRYMAC2702 wrote:
brian, do you think tignes will have enough to open more than the glacier runs by this time next week Puzzled Very Happy


Not a chance, IMHO
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kitenski wrote:
HARRYMAC2702 wrote:
brian, do you think tignes will have enough to open more than the glacier runs by this time next week Puzzled Very Happy


Not a chance, IMHO


I agree, at least not unless they can do a lot of snowmaking which looks iffy given the warm temperates. I've just been out in the backgarden in T-shirts and shorts, looks like quite a bit of rain is forecast before the snow level finally gets down to 2000m. All the snow from Sunday has burned off except in very shaded slopes below 2,500 meters where I am. It is looking like we will get around 10cm - not the 50cm needed to get a good base going. Still the glacier should be good.

The local avalanche bulletins often give quite good snow predictions. Here is an automated English translation for the Savoie:-

http://pistehors.com/backcountry/wiki/Avalanches/Savoie-Avalanche-Bulletin
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 brian
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kitenski wrote:
HARRYMAC2702 wrote:
brian, do you think tignes will have enough to open more than the glacier runs by this time next week Puzzled Very Happy


Not a chance, IMHO


Still a long way out, the precip could easily be upgraded again, but chances are there won't be enough.

As davidof says though, the glacier should be in good nick.
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but there will at least be some snowfall? also looking at val thorens- same here do you think?
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but even if they got 50cm+ in the next week I don't think they would open any of the runs, until they got more of a base down, and compacted.

Checking out the webcames, Tovieres is bare, and that's (if I remember correctly) a key run to get back from the bowls in the middle of Val D'Isere and Tignes.

Val D'Isere isn't due to open until the 25th, so I'd say that they will keep everything closed until that day, and open up then with more terrain, assuming they get snow and/or cold enough temps to make snow.


Regards,

Greg
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