 Poster: A snowHead
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Today also seems to be a free day at www.snow-forecast.com so get a 6 day forecast for free while you can!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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I don't know for sure, but it looks like snow-forecast base their predictions on GFS output (they probably modify it a bit though). Which is not a bad thing, just worth taking into account.
Anyway, there's currently reasonable agreement (for our purposes) between thje models and FAX at the moment. The high pressure looks like it's back to dominate for the next week, so few places are likely to get any significant snow. The Pyrennees and southern Alps look likely to get most of the stuff (Sun/Mon?) from a small trough that moves up through southern Spain and the northen Med, and this may well be a reasonable amount in some places. Otherwise, there is a promising looking system at the end of next week, but it's too early to see what the HP will be doing then.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Hi Guys
What's the score for this coming weekend (for travel) and next week? Looks like a change and some snow according to the 10 day city forcasts.
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Looks like the high pressure that's been keeping the skies clear for the past week is still forecast to slip SE as per skanky's post, with a front moving in from the NW over the Alps from this coming Friday....
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Yup, that's what it looks like at the moment and some good agreement between FAX & GFS for the week, too. Looks like there was/is some snow in the Pyrennees from the forecast trough, but unfortunately I don't think it reached the southern French Alps, which is a little disappointing.
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I've been watching the forecasts, they seem to be changing rapidly at the moment, they were forecasting snow in Chamonix on Friday, that has now slipped to late Fri/Sat, so hopefully the high isn't fighting back and the front will pass Friday, or even better Thursday and I can get some freshies 
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Not sure it'll come through on Friday. FAX doesn't suggest it'll be through too early either. It doesn't go as far as Saturday yet, and GFS doesn't handle blocking too well, but there's some confidence there if the two agree with each other (for as much as we're concerned) over the next few days. I've not looked at any other models for agreement, yet.
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skanky, It looks a very similar situation to that just before the drought broke. The Atlantic fronts from the North will eventually work through the high and bring snow to the Alps. When is very hard to say!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Going on current charts, I'm reasonably happy to say Sat/Sun. There may be some light stuff around Friday. It'll warm up a bit at first, and will probably be rain in the valleys (I have no idea how high the freezing point will be). It could cool down after that though - the Alps will be east of the confluence of air being brought northwards by the high to the west, and more northerly air channelled down by the low(s) moving through. There may be a noticeable temperature range across the mountains, with it getting cooler the more east you go. GFS has it cooling down again after the weekend with more snow, even in the valleys, but the FAX charts don't go that far and it depends again on how the low & highs battle it out - GFS isn't great at blocks and will often show them breaking down at long range only to re-adjust itself nearer the time.
As usual this will probably all change.
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Still looking good for Sat/Sun, though the dividing line between "warmer" and "colder" air looks to have moved East, slightly.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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skanky, as a matter of interest, how many days ahead do feel reasonably confident in the accuracy of the forecasts (on the day doesn't count as an answer!)? Off to LDA at the weekend so reading your updates with great interest.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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MJH, never more than a week (though I can feel privately confident out to 10 days sometimes, I'll tend not to say that ), but it normally depends on what the atmosphere is doing and how much/little the models are in agreement. I'm a lot happier with the FAX charts, though it's worth trying to spot situations where they may change (normally in the boundary areas and the positions of LP systems, which have more impact in the regions immediately around them than further afield). At the present moment I'm fairly happy about the weekend, though the charts have changed enough for that period over the last 48 hours for me to be reasonably cautious about amounts, they have all had fronts running through Europe, followed by more northerly airstreams, etc. I'm not bothering about Monday onwards yet though. Too much variation over positions for the weekend to know what'll happen afterwards with any certainty, I reckon.
As I should point out again (been a bit remiss recently), my knowledge and experience of this is severely limited. I hope to do a bit more reading up on it all over the next few months (when/if I get a chance), and I'm sure that there are better resources out there. I post here, partly as it's a reviewed set of postings that I can check against what actually happens and it *might* be of use to people, and partly in the hope that someone who knows this stuff better than me can start posting here as well.
Let me know how (in)accurate I was when you get back. That goes for anyone reading this thread, too. We learn by our mistakes. 
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I'll say this again, skanky needs his own section where we can easily find his pearls of wisdom.
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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skanky, Thanks - I'll give you feedback on accuracy when I'm back.
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Poster: A snowHead
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So what are you predicting for Chamonix Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and I'll let you know Sunday/Monday how accurate you were
cheers,
greg
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Okay, this is just from the charts and I've not looked at any specific forecast sites (which may be my downfall):
Cold and clear Thursday, clouding over overnight.
Some precipitation Friday, getting heavier overnight to Saturday.
Saturday warmer. Decent amounts of snow higher up, more likely to be rain in the lower valleys. My guess is that the freezing point will may rise from about 400m to about 7-800m between Sat morning & Sunday evening (can't remember Chamonix height, and am not confident of the freezing values anyway).
Sunday more snow, but easing off. Possibly getting cooler after that.
If I get it 50% right I'll be more than happy. 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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I'm more concerned at whether the front will get far enough south. It looks as if the southern Alps will miss out again?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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I hope your right about precipitation Friday!
FWIW snow-forecast.com for Chamonix currently say
0cm Friday FL 1500m
5cm Sat FL1800m
3cm Sun FL800m
Chamonix.net says:
THURSDAY FEBRUARY 10
Brief: Fairly sunny - thickening high cloud coming in from the northwest in the afternoon
Sky Conditions: (cloud - sunshine) : clear or partly cloudy in the morning - thickening high cloud coming in from the northwest in the afternoon - period of sunshine close to 60%.
Preciptation: : none.
Wind: aloft : NW light -> moderate.
Temperature: stable.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EXTENDED OUTLOOK UNTIL SUNDAY FEBRUARY 13 2005
Friday to Sunday : unsettled northwesterly stream - snow above 1200 m.
Forecast Reliability: fairly good until Thursday - poor thereafter.
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gregh, shows how much I need to learn about freezing levels, at least they agree with me on the trend 
I expect the precip on Friday to be light and later, and overnight it to get heavier. I am expecting a bit more than they are forecasting and they tend to overdo the amounts. I guess they are going with the continued downgrade of the front by the time it reaches that area. When was this forecast made?
As has been the case recently, BTW, it looks like it'll be better the further east you go.
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The local meteo is prdeicting snow for Saturday AM, so that fits with the Chamonix forecast.
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skanky, If you get the chance, would you mind giving me your considered forescast for Les Deux Alpes for this weekend into next week. There appears to be a lot of conflicting forecasts from the usual web sources, and on the basis that I wouldn't know one end of a weather map from the other your's and anybody else's input would go down a treat (I promise that I will not hold you to your word!). Should I start crying because the Southern Alpes will miss out again (I was in La Plagne in January before it started to snow) or will I be jumping for joy at being lucky for my week in LDA. Thanks skanky and indeed anybody else who contributes, and as previously promised, I'll provide an accuracy report on my return (and will even try and make a post from LDA).
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Not sure, the extent of the precipitation keeps changing from one run to the next - so you'll get conflicting reports depending on which run(s) they've used. Also, different organisations use different models and though there's broad agreement between them, there's little detailed agreement. I'm still 50/50 that there will be a worthwhile amount on saturday, but I reckon that could be your lot for the next 7 days (barring the odd flurry here and there). I'll have another look at next week on Friday.
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The GFS 12Z run has increased the likelihood of snow in the southern French Alps (in fact it's moved the bulk of the precip. to the SW so that area would look to get more than Austria now). The biggest problem is that it still looks like being quite warm over the weekend at the same time. Should cool off again Monday though. Austria's going to colder next week.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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skanky, Thanks for all of this, keep it coming!
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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skanky, Please excuse me joining in but we had planned to drive up into Les Portes Soleil for this weekend , however we have been put off by the forecasts intimating rain over Friday/Saturday.
Latest charts even suggest that Isola ( just up the road as it were) may just have weekend snow. That would be ideal ... any suggestions as to where there might be some Fresh snow -- or at least wvoiding the rain ?
Many Thanks
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Skanky, If you do not see any more snow next week, does it look like a build up of high pressure again? What about the wind, metcheck are predicting high winds for the weekend? Thanks
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You know it makes sense.
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Newbie50, I'm sorry I have no idea how to work out the freezing level - my last attempt differed from the experts' by over 500m. I'm only at the relatively warmer/cooler level of interpretation at the moment. It's my main area to improve for next year (among many others), I think. Sorry. 
Matthew Way, looks windy for the weekend, but that should die down as the week goes on. Looks like we may get some high pressure ridging, but I'm not too confident about anything past this weekend. The statement for no more snow next week was for the southern Alps, but looking at the latest runs again, they may get some all the way until Tuesday - same caveat as for the high pressure.
It may be more clear by Friday, but the forecasters are having problems sorting out this weekend and what happens then will have a big impact on early next week. Difficult one this one.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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skanky, No problem ! Thanks very much for having a look anyway. I guess I ' ll just have to keep going outside and trying to work out what colour the hills are ...
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Poster: A snowHead
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The freezing level is looking a bit high, in the Tarentaise - according to Meteo France - rising to around 2200m on Sunday
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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PG, my skiing instructor in Les Arcs said they get rain 2-3 times a season lower down. Normally the Cachette/Sources meeting point is the boundary. I have to admit that I'm a bit surprised that it's that high...doesn't look *that* warm on the charts... You could be near the border between warm & cold air so don't write it off completely. I'd wear waterproof clothing if I was skiing on Sunday, though.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Still looking warm for Saturday though GFS (and I think UKMO) have reduced the temps for Sunday. They both disagree about Monday though - both have returning tropical maritime (modified, warm and wet), but UKMO has it taking a "flatter" track (thus being warmer). GFS has also reduced the amounts of precipitation a little, though it's difficult to see why (unless they were overplaying it before). As a whole it's looking better for the weekend than it did yesterday - the experts probably disagree with me on that, though.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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La Rosiere local frorecast now changed to snow from Friday right through to Tues.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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David
What site is the local forecast on?
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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Matthew, go www.larosiere.net and click through to weather, then click for 4 day forecast. Spoke to my daughter who's just been to the Tourist office to get the more detailed meteo forecast. Bad weather from tomorrow to Tues.
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Starting to get some pattern for next week now, too. Latest UKMO FAX looking better for cold and most models now think it'll be cold next week. Also, reasonable chance of some precipitation all week with the nicest day looking like Wednesday. A certain amount of disagreement about the shape of the high pressure on/from Wednesday with GFS, NOGAPS, ECMWF expecting it to slip westwards while UKMO and GEM expecting it to ridge eastwards. The former will bring more precipitation, but both should keep it cool/cold.
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Skanky
The meteo seems to be prdicting steady rain/snow over the weekend, any ideas on the accumulation?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Matthew Way, again, no, sorry. Rather than "Spanish Inquisition" my list of failings, I'll say that general trends is about my limit at the moment. Not much more than most people can do looking at the forecast charts, really.
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LOL
Sorry to pester you, I have found your information and thoughts very interesting. It's funny how you get completely obsessed with having ideal conditions when you are about to travel.
Cheers
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FAQ
I really think that would be a bad idea. But thanks for the vote of confidence, though. 